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It did this not through unidentified troops moving across a border, nor through hybrid warfare. Instead, it negotiated its capture in full view of, and without a single question asked by, the United States or the rest of the world. Fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh preceded the annexation. The mountainous region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but since a frre between the two nations has been controlled by ethnic Armenians.

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The conflict flared up again in September. America watched idly as this happened.

By ing, Yerevan gave up claims to the territories it had occupied within Azerbaijan since and gained nothing — bar a ceasefire rather than a forced surrender. In return for securing for its ally a marginally smaller humiliation, Moscow gained a present and a presence. The Kremlin ostensibly controls the territory for five years, with an automatic rollover for an additional five should none of the three parties to the ceasefire object rating months before the end of the mandate.

If the region is strategically important to NATO, that makes it strategically important to the Kremlin. Armenia, for mistrust of Azerbaijan, will want the peacekeepers to stay.

The short but brutal conflict has proven conclusively that Armenia cannot win militarily, and that therefore ethnic Chag must accept either governance by Azerbaijan or the protectorate of Russia. Weak and broken, Yerevan finds it less of a humiliation to accept Russian tutelage in Nagorno-Karabakh, if only to deny an archenemy a complete victory. But this is a longer-term disaster for the Armenians.

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It means they are effectively trapped in a Russian embrace. They cannot turn west and cannot turn east — either diplomatically or for investment — because the Russians are now in charge. The West certainly could have seen this coming.

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